Strategic Thinking Behind Ongoing Insurgent Offensive Operations In Northeast Nigeria- An Analysis

Author

Fulan Nasrullah is a national security policy advisor based in Nigeria. He has worked extensively on understanding the Boko Haram Insurgency. He is a founder of the Conflict Studies And Analysis Project. He sometimes tweets in a personal capacity via @fulannasrullah.

While Conflict Studies And Analysis Project content may contain primary source material, it does not contain information of an official or otherwise classified nature, neither does it represent the official position of any government, organisation, agency or group.

Sourcing And Verification

The analysis contained in this brief is informed by primary source information[1], to which rigorous vetting and verification processes have been applied in order to ensure that the final product is as accurate and reflective of the situation as possible.

Outline

  1. Background
  2. The Bolduc Plan
  3. Impact Of Deep Punch I&II On ISWAP Strategic Thinking
  4. Impact of Deep Punch I&II On Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnati Lid-Da’wati Wal-Jihad
  5. Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnati Lid-Da’wati Wal-Jihad: Breaking The Blockade
  6. Operation Last Hold
  7. ISWAP: Consolidation and Expansion Theory
  8. Possible Trajectories
  9. Conclusion

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Options To Refocus The Multinational Joint Task Force

Fulan Nasrullah is a national security policy advisor based in Nigeria. He is a founder of the Conflict Studies And Analysis Project. He sometimes tweets via @fulannasrullah.

Zakari Mijinyawa currently works for the Government of The Federal Republic of Nigeria. He has worked on Strategic Communications, and Counterterrorism Policy , including pioneering and contributing to Nigeria’s National Security Strategy 2014, National Counterterrorism Strategy 2016, and the Policy Framework and National Action Plan for Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism. He tweets via @ZMijinyawa.

Opinions expressed in this article by him do not in anyway reflect official Government of The Federal Republic Of Nigeria, thinking or policy.

Conflict Studies And Analysis Project’s content does not contain information of a classified or otherwise official nature, neither does the content represent the position of any governmental nor non-governmental entity.

 

National Security Situation: The Multinational Joint Task Force[MNJTF] of the Lake Chad Basin Commission[LCBC] states, formed to better coordinate and integrate regional forces into a comprehensive force to degrade and ultimately defeat insurgencies in the Lake Chad region, is failing to make any meaningful impact, three years after being reformed with a new structure and concept of operations.

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Assessment Of The Current State Of The Boko Haram War

Fulan Nasrullah is a national security policy advisor, based in Nigeria. He is a founder of Conflict Studies And Analysis Project. He sometimes tweets via @fulannasrullah.

Conflict Studies And Analysis Project’s content does not contain information of a classified or otherwise official nature, neither does the content represent the position of any governmental or non governmental entity.

Summary: While the current campaign, comprising Deep Punch I&II, of the Nigerian Armed Forces in Northern Borno have increased pressure on the insurgent groups in the area, limited resources diverted to staunch the increasing flow of instability in the Northwest and North Central parts of Nigeria,  coupled with insurgent resilience, strategic miscalculations and regional partner weakness, may ultimately prolong the current strategic stalemate at the detriment of the Nigerian State, or return the initiative to the insurgents by creating gaps that they can exploit.

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The Journey Begins

In The Name Of Allah, The Most Merciful To His Worshippers, The Most Merciful To All His Creation.

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When I decided to stop updating and writing on the Fulan Sitrep blog part of my thinking at that time was that my job on the blogosphere -which I defined as educating people on the complexities of the Lake Chad Conflict- was done. However as I have come to realise, perhaps there is more that I and others that I know, who are in positions of knowledge on a myriad of issues, can do to help foster intellectual growth on conflicts, and security policy making in the geographical spaces known as Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad/Sahel.

Continue reading “The Journey Begins”